Why Donald Trump Achieved a Major Step in the Middle East Yet Struggles With Vladimir Putin Concerning the Ukraine Conflict
Reports of an upcoming American-Russian presidential meeting have been overstated, it seems.
Just days after Donald Trump announced he intended to meet Russia's leader Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been put off without a new date.
A preliminary meeting by the two nations' leading diplomats has been called off, too.
"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump told the press at the executive mansion on a recent weekday. "I don't want a pointless effort, so I will observe what happens."
- Donald Trump says he wished to avoid a 'unproductive session' after arrangement for Putin talks postponed
- Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky leaves Washington without results
The on-again, off-again summit is another development in the president's efforts to mediate an conclusion to hostilities in the Eastern European nation – a topic of increased attention for the US president after he orchestrated a truce and hostage release deal in the Palestinian territory.
During a speech in Egypt recently to celebrate that ceasefire agreement, the president addressed Steve Witkoff, with a fresh directive.
"It is essential to get Russia resolved," he declared.
Nonetheless, the conditions that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for the negotiation team may be difficult to duplicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for nearing several years.
Less Leverage
According to Witkoff, the crucial element to unlocking a agreement was the Israeli government's decision to attack Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a move that angered US partners in the Arab world but provided the president leverage to compel Israel's leader Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
Trump benefited from a long record of supporting Israel since his initial presidency, encompassing his choice to move the American embassy to the contested city, to change US policy on the legality of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his backing for Israel's military campaign against Iran.
The American leader, actually, is more popular among Israelis than their prime minister – a position that provided him with unique influence over the Israeli leader.
Add in Trump's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the area, and he had a abundant negotiating strength to force an deal.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, on the other hand, Trump has significantly reduced influence. In recent months, he has vacillated between attempts to pressure Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.
Trump has warned to enact new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to supply Ukraine with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that doing so could disrupt the world's financial stability and further escalate the war.
At the same time, the US leader has criticized openly Ukraine's president, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with the country and pausing weapon deliveries to the nation - only to then retreat in the face of concerned European allies who caution a Ukrainian collapse could disrupt the entire region.
The president often boasts about his skill to meet and negotiate deals, but his face-to-face meetings with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to advance the war any nearer a peaceful end.
Putin may actually be using Trump's desire for a deal – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a method of influencing him.
In July, Putin agreed to a high-level meeting in the US state just as it appeared likely that Trump would sign off on congressional sanctions package supported by Senate Republicans. That legislation was afterwards put on hold.
Last week, as reports spread that the US administration was considering seriously shipping long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the Russian leader called Trump who then touted the possible meeting in Budapest.
The next day, the president hosted Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but left empty-handed after a reportedly strained discussion.
Trump maintained that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.
"You know, I've been played throughout my career by the best of them, and I came out successfully," he remarked.
However the Ukrainian leader subsequently commented on the timeline of developments.
"As soon as the matter of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for Ukraine – for our nation – Russia almost automatically became less engaged in diplomacy," he stated.
Thus, in a short period, the president has bounced from considering the idea of sending missiles to Ukraine to planning a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and confidentially pressuring the Ukrainian president to cede the entire Donbas region – including land Russian forces has been failed to capture.
He has ultimately settled on calling for a ceasefire along current battle lines – a proposal the Russian government has refused to accept.
On the campaign trail previously, the candidate vowed that he could end the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has subsequently discarded that pledge, saying that ending the war is proving harder than he expected.
It has been a uncommon admission of the limits of his authority – and the challenge of finding a peace plan when both parties wants, or is able to, cease hostilities.