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Voting has commenced for general elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys indicating that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their emerge victorious, though analysts believe PVV stands little chance of being part of the next government.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

The PVV, which previously achieved a shock first-place finish and formed a multi-party all-conservative government that lasted barely a year, is currently slightly leading in the polls and is projected to secure between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-seat parliament.

Nevertheless, PVV's popularity has declined since the previous election, when it won 37 seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, who triggered the fall of the previous government in June over a dispute concerning his controversial anti-refugee plans.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

At the end of a election period focused on issues such as migration, healthcare costs, and the nation's acute housing crisis, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, expected to gain between 22 and 26 seats.

Also performing well is the centrist Democrats 66, predicted to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the Freedom Party, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with some facing heavy losses.

Voting Process and Political Division

Under the proportional Dutch system, gaining just less than one percent of the vote earns a party one MP. Of the 27 parties participating in the vote – including parties for the over-50s, youth parties, for animals, basic income advocates, and for sport – up to 16 could enter the legislature.

This significant division means that no one party is expected to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by coalitions – often including four parties in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the his party ends up as the largest party yet is excluded from power. However, critics and analysts say that first place does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

While the final outcome is hard to predict and coalition talks could take several months, political observers suggest that following the most radical administration in recent memory, the future government is expected to be a broad-based alliance headed by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, opened at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A usually accurate exit poll is expected soon after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will test potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in parliament. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must face a vote of confidence in the house before taking office.