🔗 Share this article

Only 48 hours before the New York mayoral election, political analyst Michael Lange issued a bold forecast – going beyond who would win overall, but block by block. The analyst, a political analyst born and raised in the city, devoted more than ten years in progressive politics and emerged as something of a well-known figure this year for his deep dives into municipal statistics and voter surveys.

He released his highly detailed prediction map – accurately predicting that Zohran Mamdani was victorious while missing Andrew Cuomo’s strong performance – on his newsletter, his platform. He has a flair for witty coinages. He pointed out, as an example, the split between the “commie corridor”, stretching from Park Slope to another area to Astoria, where he predicted (accurately) that the left-wing candidate would win by huge margins, and the conservative-leaning zone on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. There, certain media outlets and financial newspapers surpass the mainstream paper” in readership and most voters leaned toward Cuomo, who ran as a moderate alternative.

Voting Day Patterns and Surprises

What was your election night?

It was necessary because they were dropping approximately 200K votes into the system frequently! I was actually somewhat anxious at the beginning: The candidate led the early vote by 12 points, but came two big batches of votes added after that and the advantage went from 12 to 8%. I was worried.

You know, it was possible where yesterday turned out somewhat badly for him, where the opponent would have essentially doubling his votes from the Democratic primary. However the winner added half a million supporters to his initial base, and that’s a huge reason why he won. He campaigned and greatly broadened his base from the primary.

Expanding Support

How did the mayor-elect gain those extra votes from?

He built the coalition that the left always wanted to build: it’s multiracial, it’s young, it’s renters and it’s people facing cost pressures. He gained considerably with minority communities, working- and middle-class voters, compared to the earlier election. Plus he boosted his base of liberal progressives, youthful radicals, and Muslims and south Asians. Victory required without making those significant inroads.

He created the coalition that the left always wanted to build: diverse, youthful, renters and residents squeezed by affordability

There were also a number of supporters of both candidates – is that a big trend?

It is a real thing, limited to working-class Latinos, Asian communities and Muslims. Electors in immigrant strongholds that supported the former president last year backed the progressive now. However it’s not that he was winning over Caucasian laborers and Trump loyalists.

Voter Participation and Impact

A major development of the election was the sky-high participation. Who benefited?

Both sides. Participation was significantly higher than I had expected. I figured it could go over 2 million, but it reached 2.3 million – which is a huge number of participants. There was a substantial anti-Mamdani block, energized, but the Mamdani base was also motivated, and that was enough to win.

You forecasted he’d exceed 50% of the vote. Is he on course for that?

Right now you would say he’s likely to get over 50%. He has 50.4% but there’s still around 200K ballots left to report as of Wednesday morning. Thus I don’t think certain, but I believe it’s likely, and I wish he achieves it so afterwards none can claim the Republican was a disruptor.

Republican Collapse

The GOP candidate, the conservative contender, is the other big story. His vote completely collapsed.

He lost a single precinct in any area. Not even one neighborhood in Staten Island, similar to an 88% Trump area. That really was unexpected. The independent held very white areas, very wealthy areas and devout communities, and plus gained all of these conservatives on Staten Island who had a strong turnout. I think there was significant tactical voting by the Republicans. This happened before the former president endorsed for the candidate, but that definitely helped. It might have changed the outcome unless Mamdani’s coalition hadn’t grown.

Progressive Strongholds

Regarding your often-discussed left-wing base – was support for the candidate dominant in those areas of Brooklyn and Queens?

I think there was some weakening of the progressive zone in some areas like neighborhoods that have more older white ethnic folks. In Astoria, instance, the Greek landlords and residents all went for the independent. Thus there was a little resistance. But no, mostly the leftist base is another huge reason why Mamdani prevailed – he scored between 77% and 83% in specific neighborhoods.

Jewish Voters

Prior to the election there was coverage on whether the candidate was making inroads with Jewish New Yorkers. Any indication that he succeeded?

Exist neighborhoods with many secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – like specific locales – where he did well. However in the wealthy Jewish communities like the Manhattan area, his position on Israel was influential in those places. Likewise in the moderate communities including Queens neighborhoods, or Bronx areas – they favored the independent. Plus, you have newcomers from Eastern Europe in the borough, they were strongly supportive. Therefore I don’t know if there were crazy narrative-busters here, but Mamdani retained more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and even parts of the Upper West Side with large leads.

Long-Term Significance

Did Mamdani redefine what New York represents in politics? Will progressive base become a launch pad for progressive contenders?

Yes, it’s no coincidence that some of the biggest political leaders from progressives hail from a handful of neighborhoods in the boroughs. I’m sure that we’ll see additional examples – candidates will emerge from these neighborhoods to be promoted to higher office.

But I believe that each urban center in America could develop similar progressive hubs. Urban places are the epicenters of progressive influence in the nation – since youth reside there, people rent and they are places where people are crushed by the disparities exist.