‘The Situation is Dire’: Conflict on Iran Squeezes India's Cooking-Gas Supplies.

The repercussions of a conflict being fought nearly 1,864 miles away are now impacting India's kitchens.

As military actions on Iran impede energy deliveries through the key maritime chokepoint, availability of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are tightening across India, forcing restaurants to reduce offerings, shorten hours and in some cases close completely.

Social media is awash with video clips showing lines outside fuel suppliers across Indian urban and rural areas as concerns over fuel supplies spread. Businesses appear the most affected: the biggest crunch is in commercial eateries.

"The state of affairs is alarming. Cooking gas simply cannot be found," says a spokesperson of the an industry group.

Most restaurants run either on commercial LPG cylinders or piped gas, and the shortages are now being felt across the country. "Numerous restaurants have shut down - some in Delhi, many in the southern states. People are switching to traditional burners and electronic appliances to keep kitchens going."

City-Specific Fallout

In Mumbai, local news say up to a significant portion of hospitality businesses are already completely or partially closed as business fuel stocks dry up. In the southern cities of Bengaluru and Chennai, some eateries say their gas stocks have shrunk with scarce alternatives. "Our menu is reduced to coffee and no other dishes - it is extremely difficult. Operations will be impacted," says a chain proprietor in Bengaluru.

Restaurant managers are scrambling to adapt. "Menus are being curtailed, some are cutting lunch service and opening only for dinner," an industry representative says, adding that shutdowns are changing as supplies come and go. "A number of eateries in Delhi were shut yesterday - some have resumed operations. It's a changing landscape."

Retailers note a increase in sales of induction stoves, with some saying they are selling out quickly.

Government Stance

Yet, the government states there is no shortage.

India has more than 300 million household consumers and spokespersons say cylinders are being redirected to households as geopolitical strain from the regional hostilities impact energy markets.

About a majority of India's LPG is sourced from abroad, and about nine out of ten of those shipments pass through the critical waterway, the vital passage now effectively closed by the hostilities.

The petroleum ministry says that it ordered refineries to maximise LPG output for household consumption, raising domestic production by about 25%. Non-domestic supply is being reserved for vital industries such as healthcare and education, while distribution will be "fair and transparent".

"Some panic booking and accumulation has been sparked by rumors. The regular refill period for home fuel remains about two-and-a-half days," says a government spokesperson.

Widening Concern

Now the worry is extending beyond kitchens. On online networks, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a long, snaking queue of motorbikes outside a fuel station. "The panic is real," the caption reads.

According to analysis from energy specialists, concerns about India's broader energy security may be premature.

India imports 90% of its crude oil. Around half of its oil purchases - about millions of barrels a day - travel through the strait, largely from Gulf countries.

Even if petroleum transit through the Strait of Hormuz are blocked, the shortfall could be partly made up by higher imports of discounted Russian crude, according to a refinery and oil markets analyst.

Based on vessel tracking and credible market sources, increased Russian crude imports could reach around a significant volume of barrels a day, reducing India's effective gap from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about a substantial volume of barrels a day.

"Around 25-30 million Russian oil barrels are currently in transit at sea in the Indian Ocean and, with only two major Asian economies as major buyers, those barrels remain a viable alternative," an analyst noted.

LPG: The Real Vulnerability

The real vulnerability is kitchen fuel, analysts say.

India consumes roughly 1 million barrels a day, but produces only 40-45% domestically, importing the rest - the vast majority through the Strait.

Refineries can modify output to extract a bit more LPG, but even a 10-20% boost would only increase domestic supply to about around half of demand, leaving the country largely dependent on imports.

In short: "Oil import vulnerability can be somewhat alleviated through diversification. Processed petroleum stocks remains largely sufficient. Kitchen fuel stocks is the real variable to monitor in the coming weeks."

What may be worsening the concern on the ground is not just scarcity but erratic supply chains - and the common threat of hoarding.

An industry representative alleges price gouging.

"Retailers are misusing the situation - selling fuel on the black market and selling them at a high cost. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being hoarded and auctioned off."

For now, India's energy imports may be protected by worldwide shipping. But in kitchens across the country, the more pressing concern is simple: how to get the next gas canister.