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Ouch. From one perspective, Australia's protracted campaign to organize the UN climate conference next year has ended in clear failure.

The effort ran for over 36 months for the rights to host the world's biggest climate summit and sustainable business expo, which would have brought tens of thousands of people to the city of Adelaide next November.

This won't occur. Instead, the conference known as Cop31 is headed to the resort city of the Turkish coastal city, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Letdown and Mixed Messages

This outcome will be a major let down to numerous individuals who had hoped hosting the environmental gathering could help accelerate Australia's shift from being a carbon-based economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring international focus to the existential plight facing Pacific island nations, who would have been joint hosts.

The procedure that resulted in defeat has been an opaque mess. In recent days, there have been doubts that the prime minister and other senior figures truly desired the proposal to succeed. His statements were ambiguous at best. This led to reports in the Australian and international media saying the administration was walking away.

This contrasted with the message being relayed at the Cop30 talks in the Brazilian city, where the environment minister, the climate minister, had just stated the country was "in it to win it".

Ambiguous backing is a recurring problem for the hosting proposal. Although the minister supported it, other senior members of the administration have only occasionally appeared to be interested.

DFAT, usually in charge for international climate negotiations, has been disengaged and at times outright opposed.

Evidence suggests the prime minister has viewed UN climate conferences a important focus. He hasn't attended one since taking office in 2022. It's uncertain, but some will wonder if additional efforts were possible to secure the hosting rights.

A Different Perspective

That's the negative take. However, another perspective to look at it.

In the context the Cop30 talks this week in South America – and from an global viewpoint – the announcement on Wednesday night may, ironically, have been the best result available.

The minister outlined on Wednesday an novel agreement that he was working on with his Turkish counterpart, the Turkish minister. Turkey would be the Cop president, organizer and effective event manager, and Australia – Bowen himself – would assume a role as "chief negotiator", managing almost all nations on the matters that the nations actually turn up for – the discussions on how to together address the environmental emergency.

Additionally, there would be a increased emphasis on the Pacific, including a preliminary meeting on an Pacific island.

Grounds for Scepticism

There are plenty of grounds for scepticism. The two nations do not have a strong partnership. The details of the deal had not been completed at the time of writing. The whole thing could fall over before it gets started.

However, it might represent a way to recover value from what appeared to be an impending disaster for the multilateral work on climate change.

The Turkish government is widely seen in the international community as having been determined on causing havoc in the international climate negotiations. This framework is designed to operate by unanimous agreement. Usually, that means if there are several nations in the race those with weaker backing either withdraw gracefully, or a compromise is privately arranged to persuade them to exit the race.

The Turkish bid plainly had less support than the joint Pacific proposal to host Cop31. Approximately 24 of the 28 countries responsible for nominating next year's host had backed the southern pitch.

However, uniquely, Turkey declined to withdraw. The term "disruption" has been used frequently in recent days, and not just by local commentators.

Geopolitical Context

Turkey's obstinacy can be read as a reflection of the fracturing geopolitical climate. Without US participation under the former president, there has been no major power with the influence to confront the petroleum exporters that provided the Turkish government with some cover.

President Erdoğan is considered aligned with Vladimir Putin. Several nations worried about a summit hindered from the top if his government led the discussions. Germany did not want to have to organize an unprepared climate conference at the UN climate headquarters in the German city, which is what would have happened under UN rules if the stalemate wasn't broken.

A Creative Solution

A resolution was necessary. International frameworks is flawed and often disconcerting to watch, but global cooperation has empirically made a difference in the fight against global heating. This joint approach is a creative idea that keeps that going when it is needed more than ever.

Despite reasonable concerns of the federal administration over its contradictory stance for expanding fossil fuel exports, environmental advocates who attend international meetings see Bowen as a force for good in the talks. He has been requested to co-chair negotiation streams at multiple summits he has attended.

This is significant. While some have dismissed the importance of a "president of negotiations", experts from academic institutions and experienced analysts at environmental negotiations assert it is pivotal to their positive outcome.

"Every successful Cop has been determined by a president directing proceedings who can understand, build consensus and achieve an significant result. This occurred in Berlin in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and Paris in 2015. The reverse happened in the Danish city in 2009," they note. "This position is critical at the conference except for making sure that delegates are fed."

Remaining Concerns

There are plenty of unresolved issues. As an illustration, non-governmental organizations plays a vital role at climate conferences. How, if anything, can the federal administration do to prevent a restriction on civil society by the Turkish leadership?

Possibly little. However, this doesn't prevent this arrangement looking like the most promising opportunity possible to have a conference that may provide benefits for the Pacific, Australia and the world. It's worth a try.